Diesel falls 16.5 cents to $6.127 a gallon as EIA raises its 2027 forecast

Diesel is still $2.29 a gallon higher than a year ago, according to EIA’s weekly price survey. The Nov. 9 price is the lowest since the week of Sept. 7, when it was $5.967. The record in EIA’s weekly series is $6.529, set the week of Sept. 21, 2026.

Prices by region

The Rocky Mountain region had the biggest weekly drop. The Lower Atlantic was the cheapest region, and California was the most expensive.

Why EIA expects high diesel next year

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Nov. 10, 2026, EIA said it now expects retail diesel to average $5.25 a gallon in 2026 and $5.03 in 2027. A month earlier, it expected $4.49 for 2027.

EIA says global fuel supplies will stay tight through the end of 2027. It points to falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and limited shipping capacity. It expects Brent crude to stay near $100 a barrel for the rest of 2026 and to average $86 in 2027.

North Carolina tax break ends Nov. 30

North Carolina has suspended its 41-cent-a-gallon tax on gasoline and diesel from Oct. 10 through Nov. 30, 2026, under Session Law 2026-62. On Oct. 30, the state attorney general’s office said it had sent inquiries to 31 stations after complaints that the savings were not passed on. Drivers can report a station through the office’s N.C. Fuel Check page at ncdoj.gov/ncfuelcheck.

EIA’s next weekly diesel price comes out Nov. 17, 2026.

For more on fuel, rates and costs, see Owner-Operator news.